The 2015 Paris Agreement’s ambition to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels is effectively dead, despite ongoing rhetoric. While renewable energy adoption and electric vehicle sales have increased, greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise – over 41 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide annually – while fossil fuel expansion plans proceed unabated.
The Illusion of a Target, Not a Limit
The failure stems from a critical misunderstanding: 1.5°C was treated as a target rather than a strict limit. Targets are meant to be aimed at, while limits are designed to be kept below. By the time of the Paris Conference, the planet had already warmed by over 1°C, with warming occurring at roughly 0.18°C per decade. This perceived time buffer allowed governments and fossil fuel corporations to delay meaningful action under the guise of “business as usual.” The result? Another 37 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide pumped into the atmosphere each year.
Why New Limits Will Also Fail
The debate over a new temperature threshold to replace 1.5°C is misguided. Proposals for 1.6°C or 1.7°C will inevitably suffer the same fate, becoming mere targets rather than enforceable limits. At the current rate of warming – now at 0.27°C per decade – even these higher thresholds will be breached by the mid-2030s. There is no realistic chance of reducing emissions fast enough to stay below any of these marks.
The Need for Instant Accountability
Instead of chasing futile limits, the focus should shift to real-time, transparent tracking of global temperature rise. The current methodology for confirming breaches – waiting a decade after they occur – renders the system meaningless. A method already exists, developed by the UK Met Office, that allows for instantaneous measurement of the annual global average temperature.
The Earth Thermometer Proposal
To make this information accessible, an “Earth Thermometer” updated every 12 months would provide an unequivocal benchmark of our impact. Modeled after the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ Doomsday Clock, an annual announcement could spotlight both the rising temperature and the irreversible tipping points being crossed.
The failure to act quickly enough has rendered the 1.5°C goal obsolete. Setting new, easily ignored targets will only compound the problem. The solution is not to redefine the line in the sand, but to show the world, in real time, how rapidly we are crossing it.
The climate crisis demands immediate accountability, not delayed confirmations and shifting goalposts. Without urgent action, the planet is locking into an increasingly perilous future.
