The earliest large-scale human societies—the first states—likely emerged not from natural progress, but from a brutal economic reality: easy-to-tax grain production. New research suggests that the rise of states wasn’t simply enabled by agriculture, but directly driven by the need to extract surplus through taxation, and that writing itself developed as a tool for record-keeping in this system.
The Mafia-Like Origins of Power
For centuries, scholars debated whether agriculture birthed civilization or was merely a desperate adaptation. The new study, led by Kit Opie (University of Bristol) and Quentin Atkinson (University of Auckland), suggests a more cynical truth: intensive agriculture created taxable surpluses, and those surpluses enabled states to form as protection rackets. These early states didn’t wait for agriculture to lead to complexity; instead, they forced it through control.
The timeline is telling. Agriculture appeared around 9000 years ago across multiple continents, yet large-scale societies didn’t follow until 4000 years later, first in Mesopotamia, then elsewhere. This delay isn’t because agriculture was slow to develop, but because it took time for states to consolidate and effectively extract resources.
Why Grain, Not Roots?
The study used linguistic and anthropological data to model the probability of historical events occurring in sequence. The results were stark: states almost invariably emerged in societies with cereal grain crops (wheat, barley, rice, maize). But why grain?
The answer is simple: grain is easy to tax. It grows in fixed fields, matures predictably, and can be stored indefinitely. Root crops like potatoes or cassava are untaxable by comparison. States didn’t just benefit from grain; they actively promoted it at the expense of other crops. Opie argues that early states likely suppressed root crops and fruit trees because they couldn’t be taxed as efficiently.
Writing as a Tool of Control
The link between taxation and writing is equally clear. The study found that writing rarely emerged in societies without taxation, but nearly always appeared where taxes were collected. The elites used writing to record debts, enforce claims, and legitimize their power. In essence, literacy wasn’t a byproduct of civilization; it was a tool for maintaining the emerging social hierarchy.
The Cost of Control
While cereal agriculture fueled population growth during the Neolithic period, it came at a steep cost: declining health, stunted growth, and poorer dental health. This is because centralized control over food production meant less dietary diversity and more reliance on a single, easily taxable crop. The effects of this shift are still felt today.
The Bigger Picture
The study’s methodology—applying evolutionary models to cultural development—is innovative but not without critics. Some archaeologists argue that the relationship between agriculture and state formation varied significantly across regions. For example, early state formation in Egypt seems linked to royal rituals rather than purely taxation.
However, the core argument remains powerful: the first states were not born from benevolence or progress, but from coercion and the need to extract resources. The very foundations of civilization were built on the backs of farmers forced to produce taxable surpluses, with writing serving as the ledger for their exploitation.
The evidence suggests that the first states were essentially protection rackets, ensuring fields were defended in exchange for a cut. This realization is a harsh but necessary truth for understanding the origins of power and inequality.
